Why climate change is a threat multiplier
(5 min) The greatest experiment in our history is unfolding now
Concerned about climate change but don’t know where to start? Follow along!
For 3000 years, the Sumerians of Mesopotamia lived in Eden, cultivating wheat along the lush riversides of the Euphrates. From these abundant plains, the Akaddian empire emerged to form the first great empire in history. Seemingly overnight, the empire that relied on agricultural abundance was besieged by a biblical drought, causing famine and unrest across the land. In under 200 years, the empire would be reduced to dust.
Careful in the kitchen
The story of the Akaddians is not unique. A cursory glance through history instills humility of nature’s ability to tear down even the strongest civilizations. This time, we seem to be doing it to ourselves.
Humans suck at observing slow, small changes. For instance, did anyone notice that food packaging has been progressively getting smaller from shrinkflation? Of course not! It’s just a couple grams here and there.
Similarly, climate change still feels like a bad future thing, but the reality is that we already have been experiencing the side effects of a changing climate for some time. The individual changes (~1 degree C) are hardly noticeable, but when they combine things get interesting.
Let’s start with the basics: more heat energy is being trapped near Earth’s surface. This heats up everything: the air, the water, the people… everything. Some stuff absorbs more than others depending on specific heat of the substance.
All of this extra heat energy is put to work by modifying our weather. It’s changes in our weather we experience as good or bad. There are 3 main ways we already experience our changing weather: extreme heat, storms, and hurricanes.
Extreme Temperatures: Hot in here
Greenhouse gases are trapping more of the sun’s energy near Earth’s surface, heating it up. We directly observe this as rising average temperatures globally, but some areas are hit worse than others.
On a usual day, it’s no big deal. But the frequency and intensity of extreme hot days is on the rise globally. Meaning, more people are subjected to dangerous heat more frequently.
Besides being miserably hot, extreme heat exacerbates droughts, increases wildfire risk, and decreases agricultural yield. There are some confounding factors (e.g. poor soil management increases drought risk), but net-net the hotter it is, the greater the risk is. Today, 1.2 BILLION people live in agricultural regions with severe water shortages- this will increase.
Hurricanes: The motion in the ocean
Similar to rising air temperatures, the oceans soak up excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases. Since water can absorb 3000x more heat than air by volume, our oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the heat added since 1950. As the ocean heats up, it expands, causing rising sea levels. 1
All of this heat flows throughout the world along massive oceanic conveyor belts, bringing warm water from the equator towards the poles. We’ve gotten used to this being a good thing as it makes places like Europe habitable by bringing 1M nuclear power plants of warmth to the region.
Sometimes, the current conditions are just right to allow hot water to linger. The longer it lingers, the more heat and moisture is released into the atmosphere. Given enough energy, it will begin spinning into a Hurricane.
The more heat we add to the atmosphere and ocean, the stronger these storms become. It’s like we’re raising the speed limit on the atmospheric circuit… accidents aren’t guaranteed, but they’ll happen more frequently and with more destruction.
Storms: Not just a lot of hot air
Similar to hurricanes, hot surface air captures water evaporating off of plants & bodies of water. All of this hot, wet air is turbocharged with kinetic energy and ready to rumble. As these hot pockets intercept cold air, the energy precipitates out in the form of rain and thunderstorms.
Again, this is usually a good thing. Rainstorms are how life-giving water traverses vast distances by moving 90% of the Earth’s water from where it’s not useful (oceans) to where it is (rivers). The problem is that warmer air can hold even more water vapor. So, when warm fronts intercept cold air, there is much more energy and water in the mix leading to a stronger storm and more flooding.
Coastal, low-lying, and riverside communities are most at risk of flooding where an estimated 1.5B people live; most are low income. The risk has been steadily creeping up. Since 1980, flood losses have grown 5x and floods are now responsible for 40% of extreme weather losses.
Human Impact: Playing with fire
Since we started burning fossil fuels, we’ve been literally playing with fire. The consequences of a warmer, wetter Earth have already burned us in the form of droughts, floods, and storms; each occurring more frequently and inflicting suffering on the millions of people left to pick up the pieces.
As frequency increases, the number of people displaced by natural disasters annually has ballooned to >100M, equivalent to the entire eastern seaboard being forced out each year.2
All of this destruction carries a high price tag to the tune of ~$150B / year in direct damage to physical structures and goods, or $5T since 1980. This doesn’t account for the cost of business disruption or personal trauma, which is estimated to be much higher.
“But Logan, that’s why we have insurance!” -Reasonable Person
Some do, most don’t. Of those losses, less than ⅓ are actually insured. Frequently, the most vulnerable people are the ones lacking coverage and holding the bag. For instance, the 2020 summer monsoon rains in China caused $17B in damage of which only 2% was insured. Meaning, as disaster frequency increases, poor people will increasingly get rug pulled.
The Silver Lining
Natural disasters have been a part of the human experience since the beginning of time. Now that we’ve discovered that humans have played a role in making them worse, some innate sense of morality (or self preservation) kicked in and we’ve stepped up to the challenge.
Since we’re crafty monkeys, we’ve gotten better at predicting these events and preventing some of the damage. Despite an exploding population (particularly in the hardest hit areas), we’ve managed to limit loss of life.
Furthermore, we’ve poured billions of dollars into climate research to try to understand what happens next. The reality is we have no idea, but an educated guess is useful for preparation.
Next week, we’ll cover climate models to see if we can predict the future.
Enjoy this article? Consider subscribing.
Learn something useful? Tell other people about it.
Until next time,
Want more?
Insurance companies pay a lot of attention to climate change risks. If you want to read more about what the pros think about it, check out these reports from SwissRe and Munich RE.
Dig into the core science of climate change here.
Chomping at the bit for more climate change content? Here are some of my favorites:
The Carbon Curve: Learning about the frontiers of carbon dioxide removal and carbon tech - and how to scale it up
Going Green: What problems need to be solved on the path to a carbon-free economy (digital and physical)?
🤷🏽♂️ Not My Problem: Startups across the world that are working towards improving the health of the planet
Evergreen: The main climate challenges and opportunities in front of us. Breaking down the particular causes of emissions within our economy and what solutions will get us to net zero.
Climate Money: How climate and money (finance, currencies, market opportunities) intersect
Climatic Thoughts: Solutions towards keeping the world under 2 degrees of warming
Climate Pioneers: Exploring low- and high-tech climate solutions.
Extra disclaimer: Science is never done and we’re always learning more. What’s presented here is the current global understanding from an ensemble of climate scientists across leading government organizations pulling from a range of peer-reviewed research (i.e. NASA, IPCC).
Usual disclaimers: I’m not an expert and will never claim to be. I’ll probably be lacking context, too vague, or flat-out wrong frequently & I hope folks will hold me accountable. After all, the fastest way to find the right answer is to post the wrong answer visibly on the Internet. Lastly, there is a ton of great information online already (e.g. Drawdown, Breakthrough Energy playbooks). I will synthesize and cite as I go.
As population has expanded, many people are forced into low-lying, flood prone areas, increasing the risk